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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xml:lang="ru" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:noNamespaceSchemaLocation="https://metafora.rcsi.science/xsd_files/journal3.xsd">
  <front>
    <journal-meta>
      <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">moitvivt</journal-id>
      <journal-title-group>
        <journal-title xml:lang="ru">Моделирование, оптимизация и информационные технологии</journal-title>
        <trans-title-group xml:lang="en">
          <trans-title>Modeling, Optimization and Information Technology</trans-title>
        </trans-title-group>
      </journal-title-group>
      <issn pub-type="epub">2310-6018</issn>
      <publisher>
        <publisher-name>Издательство</publisher-name>
      </publisher>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.26102/2310-6018/2026.61.10.020</article-id>
      <article-id pub-id-type="custom" custom-type="elpub">2633</article-id>
      <title-group>
        <article-title xml:lang="ru">Поддержка принятия решений по управлению вычислительными ресурсами программных сервисов на основе временных рядов</article-title>
        <trans-title-group xml:lang="en">
          <trans-title>Support for making decisions on managing computational resources of software services based on time series</trans-title>
        </trans-title-group>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">0000-0002-1732-6002</contrib-id>
          <name-alternatives>
            <name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru">
              <surname>Воронцов</surname>
              <given-names>Юрий Алексеевич</given-names>
            </name>
            <name name-style="western" xml:lang="en">
              <surname>Vorontsov</surname>
              <given-names>Yuriy Alexeyevich</given-names>
            </name>
          </name-alternatives>
          <email>voroncov_yu@mirea.ru</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff">aff-1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">0000-0002-8926-3151</contrib-id>
          <name-alternatives>
            <name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru">
              <surname>Калач</surname>
              <given-names>Андрей Владимирович</given-names>
            </name>
            <name name-style="western" xml:lang="en">
              <surname>Kalach</surname>
              <given-names>Andrew Vladimirovich</given-names>
            </name>
          </name-alternatives>
          <email>a_kalach@mail.ru</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff">aff-2</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">0000-0003-0582-3009</contrib-id>
          <name-alternatives>
            <name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru">
              <surname>Золотарев</surname>
              <given-names>Юрий Николаевич</given-names>
            </name>
            <name name-style="western" xml:lang="en">
              <surname>Zolotarev</surname>
              <given-names>Yuri Nikolaevich</given-names>
            </name>
          </name-alternatives>
          <email>vifsin@36.fsin.gov.ru</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff">aff-3</xref>
        </contrib>
      </contrib-group>
      <aff-alternatives id="aff-1">
        <aff xml:lang="ru">МИРЭА – Российский технологический университет</aff>
        <aff xml:lang="en">MIREA – Russian Technological University</aff>
      </aff-alternatives>
      <aff-alternatives id="aff-2">
        <aff xml:lang="ru">Воронежский институт ФСИН России МИРЭА – Российский технологический университет</aff>
        <aff xml:lang="en">Voronezh Institute of the Federal Penitentiary Service of Russia MIREA – Russian Technological University</aff>
      </aff-alternatives>
      <aff-alternatives id="aff-3">
        <aff xml:lang="ru">Воронежский институт ФСИН России</aff>
        <aff xml:lang="en">Voronezh Institute of the Federal Penitentiary Service of Russia</aff>
      </aff-alternatives>
      <pub-date pub-type="epub">
        <day>01</day>
        <month>01</month>
        <year>2026</year>
      </pub-date>
      <volume>1</volume>
      <issue>1</issue>
      <elocation-id>10.26102/2310-6018/2026.61.10.020</elocation-id>
      <permissions>
        <copyright-statement>Copyright © Авторы, 2026</copyright-statement>
        <copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
        <license license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">
          <license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License</license-p>
        </license>
      </permissions>
      <self-uri xlink:href="https://moitvivt.ru/ru/journal/article?id=2633"/>
      <abstract xml:lang="ru">
        <p>В работе рассматривается задача оценки текущей потребности микросервиса в вычислительных ресурсах на основе данных мониторинга, представляемых в виде временных рядов, результаты которой затем могут быть использованы в процессе принятия решений по выделению вычислительных ресурсов. Под потребностью понимается требуемая интенсивность потребления наиболее востребованного вычислительного ресурса, обеспечивающая обработку поступающих задач при заданном окне дискретизации. Предлагается практический алгоритм, включающий: выбор информативных метрик с применением корреляционного анализа; синхронизацию, нормализацию и приведение метрик к единой дискретной шкале; очистку телеметрии от выбросов, квантования и пропусков с восстановлением значений; обнаружение точек разладки и сегментацию на режимы работы; формирование базовой линии потребления и восстановление ряда потребности r(t). Для построения r(t) рассматриваются два семейства методов. В бесклассовой постановке оценивается удельная ресурсоемкость запроса по расходу ресурса и счетчикам входящих/обработанных задач, вводится экспоненциальное сглаживание, а параметры сглаживания адаптируются при смене режимов. В классовой постановке вводится разбиение запросов по типам и решается регрессионная задача для оценивания стоимостей классов с использованием NNLS и онлайн-RLS с фактором забывания. Приводится методика экспериментальной проверки на воспроизводимом микросервисном стенде с контролируемыми сценариями нагрузки, сравнением точности относительно эталонного расхода и оценкой вычислительных затрат, что делает результаты применимыми для мониторинга и масштабирования.</p>
      </abstract>
      <trans-abstract xml:lang="en">
        <p>The paper considers the task of estimating the current demand for computing resources by a micro-service based on monitoring data represented as time series, the results of which can then be used in decision-making on the allocation of computing resources. The demand is understood as the required intensity of consumption of the most in-demand computing resource, which ensures the processing of incoming tasks within a specified sampling window. A practical algorithm is proposed, which includes the following steps: selecting informative metrics using correlation analysis; synchronizing, normalizing, and converting metrics to a single discrete scale; cleaning telemetry from outliers, quantization, and missing values, and restoring them; detecting points of failure and segmenting them into operating modes; generating a baseline for consumption and restoring the demand series r(t). Two families of methods are considered for building the demand series, r(t). In the unsuper-vised setting, the specific resource consumption of a request is estimated based on the resource consumption and the counts of incoming/processed tasks, and exponential smoothing is introduced, with the smoothing parameters adapting to changes in modes. In the supervised setting, requests are divided into types/endpoints, and a regression problem is solved to estimate the costs of classes using NNLS and online RLS with a forgetting factor. The paper presents a methodology for experimental validation using a reproducible microservice testbed with controlled load scenarios, comparing the accuracy against the reference consumption, and estimating computational costs, making the results applicable for monitoring and scaling purposes.</p>
      </trans-abstract>
      <kwd-group xml:lang="ru">
        <kwd>оценка потребности в ресурсе</kwd>
        <kwd>микросервисы</kwd>
        <kwd>метрики мониторинга</kwd>
        <kwd>временные ряды</kwd>
        <kwd>обнаружение разладки</kwd>
        <kwd>NNLS</kwd>
        <kwd>RLS</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
      <kwd-group xml:lang="en">
        <kwd>resource requirement estimation</kwd>
        <kwd>micro-services</kwd>
        <kwd>monitoring metrics</kwd>
        <kwd>time series</kwd>
        <kwd>outlier detection</kwd>
        <kwd>NNLS</kwd>
        <kwd>RLS</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
      <funding-group>
        <funding-statement xml:lang="ru">Исследование выполнено без спонсорской поддержки.</funding-statement>
        <funding-statement xml:lang="en">The study was performed without external funding.</funding-statement>
      </funding-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <back>
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      <fn fn-type="conflict">
        <p>The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.</p>
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    </fn-group>
  </back>
</article>