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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xml:lang="ru" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:noNamespaceSchemaLocation="https://metafora.rcsi.science/xsd_files/journal3.xsd">
  <front>
    <journal-meta>
      <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">moitvivt</journal-id>
      <journal-title-group>
        <journal-title xml:lang="ru">Моделирование, оптимизация и информационные технологии</journal-title>
        <trans-title-group xml:lang="en">
          <trans-title>Modeling, Optimization and Information Technology</trans-title>
        </trans-title-group>
      </journal-title-group>
      <issn pub-type="epub">2310-6018</issn>
      <publisher>
        <publisher-name>Издательство</publisher-name>
      </publisher>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.26102/2310-6018/2021.35.4.028</article-id>
      <article-id pub-id-type="custom" custom-type="elpub">1080</article-id>
      <title-group>
        <article-title xml:lang="ru">Применение метода «временного квилтинга»  для анализа выживаемости после инфаркта миокарда</article-title>
        <trans-title-group xml:lang="en">
          <trans-title>Application of "temporal quilting" method for survival analysis after myocardial infarction</trans-title>
        </trans-title-group>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes">
          <contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">0000-0003-3468-5514</contrib-id>
          <name-alternatives>
            <name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru">
              <surname>Фирюлина</surname>
              <given-names>Мария Андреевна</given-names>
            </name>
            <name name-style="western" xml:lang="en">
              <surname>Firyulina</surname>
              <given-names>Mariya Andreevna</given-names>
            </name>
          </name-alternatives>
          <email>mashafiryulina@mail.ru</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff">aff-1</xref>
        </contrib>
      </contrib-group>
      <aff-alternatives id="aff-1">
        <aff xml:lang="ru">Воронежский государственный университет</aff>
        <aff xml:lang="en">Voronezh state university</aff>
      </aff-alternatives>
      <pub-date pub-type="epub">
        <day>01</day>
        <month>01</month>
        <year>2026</year>
      </pub-date>
      <volume>1</volume>
      <issue>1</issue>
      <elocation-id>10.26102/2310-6018/2021.35.4.028</elocation-id>
      <permissions>
        <copyright-statement>Copyright © Авторы, 2026</copyright-statement>
        <copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
        <license license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">
          <license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License</license-p>
        </license>
      </permissions>
      <self-uri xlink:href="https://moitvivt.ru/ru/journal/article?id=1080"/>
      <abstract xml:lang="ru">
        <p>Значимость анализа выживаемости в задачах медицинского характера привела к развитию множества подходов к моделированию функции выживаемости. Модели, построенные с помощью различных методов машинного обучения, имеют сильные и слабые стороны с точки зрения различительной производительности и возможностей калибровки, но ни одна модель не является лучшей для всех наборов данных или даже для всех временных горизонтов в пределах одного набора данных. Актуальность исследования обусловлена тем, что не всегда базовые модели и ансамблевые подходы позволяют построить хорошую модель выживаемости для разных временных горизонтов. В связи с этим, данная статья направлена на описание применения нового подхода, который объединяет различные базовые модели для создания достоверной функции выживаемости, которая предоставляет возможности для настройки и имеет хорошие дискриминантные характеристики в различных временных горизонтах. В ходе исследования было рассмотрено шесть базовых моделей анализа выживаемости после инфаркта миокарда: непараметрические методы (модель пропорциональных рисков Кокса, модель пропорциональных рисков Кокса с использованием гребневой регрессии), параметрические модели (логистическая модель нормального распределения, логистическая модель экспоненциального распределения, метода распределения Вейбулла) и ансамблевая модель (случайный лес). Ведущим подходом к решению данной проблемы является применение усовершенствованного метода – временного квилтинга. В статье показано сравнение данного подхода с базовыми относительно точности и оценки калибровки модели. По результатам исследования выявлено, что наиболее эффективной оказалась модель временного квилтинга, а наименее эффективной – модель случайного леса. Поскольку усовершенствованный подход автоматически находит аппроксимацию наилучшей модели выживания, он дает возможность клиницистам избавиться от траты времени на поиск одной конкретной модели выживания для каждого набора данных и для каждого интересующего временного горизонта.</p>
      </abstract>
      <trans-abstract xml:lang="en">
        <p>The importance of survival analysis in medical problems has led to development of a variety of approaches to modeling the survival function. Models built with various machine learning methods have strengths and weaknesses in terms of differential performance and calibration capabilities, but no model is most suitable for all datasets or even all-time horizons within a single dataset. The relevance of the research is due to the fact that basic models and ensemble approaches do not always make it possible to build a proper survival model for different time horizons. Because of that, this article aims to outline the application of a new approach that combines various basic models to create a reliable survival function, providing opportunities for fine tuning and having good discriminant characteristics in different time horizons. During the course of the study, six basic models for analyzing survival after myocardial infarction were described: nonparametric methods (Cox proportional hazards model, Cox proportional hazards model using ridge regression), parametric models (logistic normal distribution model, logistic exponential distribution model, Weibull distribution method) and ensemble model (random forest). The principal approach to solving this problem is the use of an improved method – temporal quilting. In this study, the aforementioned approach is compared to basic methods in relation to accuracy and assessment of model calibration. The research results have revealed that ‘temporal quilting’ model is the most efficient while random forest model appears to be the least efficient. Since the enhanced approach automatically finds the approximation of the best-suited survival model, it enables clinicians to reduce time spent on the search for one specific survival model for each dataset as well as for each relevant all-time horizon.</p>
      </trans-abstract>
      <kwd-group xml:lang="ru">
        <kwd>машинное обучение</kwd>
        <kwd>анализ выживаемости</kwd>
        <kwd>временной квилтинг</kwd>
        <kwd>одеяло выживаемости</kwd>
        <kwd>байесовская оптимизация</kwd>
        <kwd>инфаркт миокарда</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
      <kwd-group xml:lang="en">
        <kwd>machine learning</kwd>
        <kwd>survival analysis</kwd>
        <kwd>temporal Quilting</kwd>
        <kwd>Bayesian optimization</kwd>
        <kwd>myocardial infarction</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
      <funding-group>
        <funding-statement xml:lang="ru">Исследование выполнено при  поддержке РФФИ,  проект 20-37-90029 Аспиранты</funding-statement>
        <funding-statement xml:lang="en">The study was carried out with the financial support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research within the framework of the scientific project No. 20-37-90029 Postgraduates.</funding-statement>
      </funding-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <back>
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    <fn-group>
      <fn fn-type="conflict">
        <p>The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.</p>
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</article>