Application of uplift modeling in tasks of increasing the effectiveness of marketing communications

In the conditions of high competition for large modern companies producing mass products or providing mass services, it is typical to increase advertising costs, which does not always bring the expected effect. There is a growing need for tools for precise audience segmentation, which can increase the effectiveness of marketing communications. Traditional response prediction models do not allow us to determine whether the client's behavior has changed under the influence of marketing impact, which reduces the possibilities of constructive analysis of marketing campaigns. This article is aimed at studying uplift modeling as a tool for assessing the effect of increasing positive responses from communication and targeting optimization. The results of the study demonstrate significant advantages of the uplift modeling approach for identifying client segments with maximum sensitivity to impact. The comparative analysis of various approaches to building uplift models (such as SoloModel, TwoModel, Class Transformation, Class Transformation with Regression), based on the use of specialized uplift metrics (uplift@k, Qini AUC, Uplift AUC, weighted average uplift, Average Squared Deviation), conducted within the article, demonstrates the strengths and weaknesses of each of the modeling approaches. The study is based on open data X5 RetailHero Uplift Modeling Dataset, provided by X5 Retail Group for the study of uplift modeling methods in the context of retail.

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